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What Novogradac’s Estimate of More Than 1 Million Rental Homes That Could be Financed through H.R. 2 Means for Each State

Published by Dirk Wallace and Peter Lawrence on Thursday, October 8, 2020 - 12:00AM

Last month Novogradac estimated that more than one million affordable rental homes that could be financed through the affordable rental housing provisions of the Moving Forward Act (H.R. 2)—a significant contribution toward meeting the substantial need for affordable rental housing. To further illustrate the potential effect of the Moving Forward Act, Novogradac has also analyzed how the projected rental homes might be distributed by state.

About these Estimates

The national estimates blog post details the methodology used to estimate the more than one million affordable rental homes that could be financed through the H.R. 2 provisions analyzed. When determining at the state estimates, Novogradac took into account the differing impact of each provision in the states. While 9 percent LIHTC allocations are essentially fully utilized and based on each state’s population, the amount of LIHTCs per unit vary with the cost of construction in the state.  Furthermore, each state does not allocate similar percentages of their private activity bond volume cap for rental housing. In addition, the estimates of the impact of the provisions in H.R 2 providing 30 percent basis boosts for properties in rural areas and Native American areas were adjusted based each state’s rural proportion and receipt of Native American housing block grant funds.

Impact for States

Here is how the estimates of affordable rental homes, jobs and economic impact break down by state:

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Based on these estimates, here are the states that could gain the largest number of affordable rental homes: 

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National estimates of the affordable rental homes that could be financed through the various LIHTC and PAB provisions of H.R. 2 that were analyzed are provided below.   

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Passage of H.R. 2 could finance not only sorely needed additions to the country’s affordable rental housing stock – even before the COVID-19 pandemic the U.S. was facing a longstanding housing crisis – but also meaningful job creation, increases in wage and business income and expansion of the tax base.  As renters, local governments and businesses continue to struggle with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, passing H.R. 2 would mean an infusion of jobs, affordable homes and resources that could help states weather the long-term fallout of the pandemic.

While H.R. 2 is not likely to be taken up as a whole by the Senate, certain provisions could be included as part of future COVID-19 relief efforts. As states devise plans to address the housing crisis, on top of dealing with the economic difficulties resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, advocating for passage of the LIHTC and PAB provisions included in H.R. 2, could provide desperately needed resources over a long-term period.

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